Description

This analysis provides a forecast of AR prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-09-07 4.136627 4.852800 5.645122 6.585174 7.668502 8.876173 10.322848
2025-09-14 2.981998 3.928142 5.088764 6.610123 8.543953 10.911490 14.020221
2025-09-21 2.268201 3.295766 4.670288 6.626883 9.320846 12.876905 17.899151
2025-09-28 1.792551 2.835713 4.338955 6.634101 10.013479 14.761913 21.881887
2025-10-05 1.602069 2.723624 4.444300 7.229354 11.563325 17.971926 28.058715
2025-10-12 1.377921 2.504616 4.336052 7.463056 12.579576 20.500806 33.520484
2025-10-19 1.202017 2.323763 4.246294 7.692128 13.591244 23.107106 39.362235
2025-10-26 1.029585 2.111488 4.061663 7.721299 14.258269 25.214938 44.612164
2025-11-02 0.854139 1.856787 3.755814 7.482561 14.418700 26.480710 48.577165
2025-11-09 0.696732 1.604314 3.408899 7.108299 14.273182 27.182819 51.618960
2025-11-16 0.594516 1.444165 3.211204 6.981814 14.554835 28.646132 56.119235
2025-11-23 0.514864 1.316463 3.056546 6.913434 14.929475 30.301775 61.110465
2025-11-30 0.472282 1.267484 3.064588 7.191819 16.046923 33.508414 69.404293
2025-12-07 0.416724 1.176345 2.966336 7.230762 16.684040 35.864004 76.325387
2025-12-14 0.367868 1.091401 2.867633 7.253153 17.287456 38.213462 83.468234
2025-12-21 0.325109 1.012862 2.770221 7.262468 17.860404 40.554257 90.815071
2025-12-28 0.320674 1.038798 2.933079 7.910156 19.938193 46.234077 105.566430
2026-01-04 0.296676 1.003540 2.934760 8.164352 21.140197 50.156762 116.965611
2026-01-11 0.274812 0.969789 2.934634 8.413347 22.357823 54.226050 129.038105
2026-01-18 0.246766 0.910416 2.855034 8.445069 23.053095 57.195589 138.962637
2026-01-25 0.212150 0.821292 2.676292 8.185653 22.993582 58.438481 145.138184
2026-02-01 0.177921 0.724395 2.456725 7.778865 22.504793 58.627630 148.919206
2026-02-08 0.156058 0.665247 2.339195 7.641357 22.699159 60.453986 156.663098